Why Chile? Resource Excellence and the Energy Transition in 2026
Chile occupies a position in the global real asset landscape that few jurisdictions can match. It is the world’s largest copper producer, accounting for approximately 24% of global mined supply. It holds approximately 30% of known global lithium reserves, making it the second-largest lithium producer on the planet. Its Atacama Desert generates some of the world’s highest solar irradiance, and its Patagonian coastline hosts wind resources that compete with the best offshore conditions globally. Its agricultural sector exports over USD 13 billion of fruit, wine, and produce annually to markets across Asia, Europe, and North America.
Chile is also an OECD member state, having joined in 2010, which gives it a governance, transparency, and investor protection framework that places it in a different institutional category from most resource-rich emerging market jurisdictions. For institutional investors subject to ESG mandates, country risk screens, or investment committee guidelines requiring OECD jurisdiction exposure, Chile provides LATAM South access within those parameters.
The investment case in 2026 rests on three converging forces: a newly elected pro-investment government that has already moved to reduce regulatory friction, a commodity price environment that rewards Chile’s specific mineral endowment, and the accelerating global energy transition that is creating structural demand for both the metals Chile produces and the green energy products it is beginning to export.
The Political Context: A Pro-Investment Reset
José Antonio Kast was elected Chile’s president on 14 December 2025, winning the runoff with 58.3% of the vote, a margin of more than 16 percentage points over the governing coalition’s candidate, Jeannette Jara. He took office on 11 March 2026. Chile’s stock market, peso, and equity benchmarks rose immediately following the election result, reflecting investor optimism over anticipated deregulation and greater legal certainty for mining and energy companies.
Kast’s platform for the mining and energy sectors is structured around three objectives: restoring competitiveness, reestablishing regulatory certainty, and accelerating the execution of investments. One of his first moves upon taking office was to place the economy and mining portfolios under a single minister, reinforcing a coordinated approach to investment policy. He has pledged to audit state copper giant Codelco, which carries more than USD 20 billion in debt, and supports joint ventures with private companies to ease Codelco’s financial burden while preserving state control. He has specifically criticised the previous administration’s lithium strategy as investment-stifling and opposes the creation of a national lithium company, favouring instead greater private participation across the sector.
The regulatory reform process is already partially in motion. Chile enacted the Framework Law on Sectoral Authorizations in September 2025, creating a single digital portal for simultaneous permit management and introducing simplified procedures for lower-risk projects. For investors who have watched Chilean projects stall for years in sequential environmental review processes, this structural reform carries more practical significance than any shift in political tone.
Investors should calibrate expectations appropriately. Chile’s institutional stability means the policy environment changes more gradually than in more volatile jurisdictions, and Kast’s pro-investment orientation does not dissolve overnight the constraints that have accumulated in permitting, water access, and community consultation requirements. The opportunity is real; the timeline requires patience.
Copper: The World’s Most Critical Metal, in Its Largest Producing Country
Chile produced approximately 5.5 million metric tons of copper in 2024, making it the world’s largest producer by a significant margin. Yet production fell 2% in 2025 compared to 2024, declining year-on-year in every month of the year, driven by declining ore grades at ageing deposits and regulatory complexity that has slowed the advancement of new projects. Cochilco projections suggest national copper output could rise modestly in the near term before gradually declining to approximately 4.4 million tonnes by 2034 unless new projects advance. The imperative to develop greenfield and brownfield capacity is structural, not cyclical.
At the current copper price of approximately USD 6.39/lb, near its all-time high, the economics of advancing projects are unambiguously positive. The structural demand case is well understood: electrification infrastructure, AI data centres, renewable energy capacity, and electric mobility all require copper at scales that current global production cannot sustain. Chile, as the dominant supply jurisdiction, is the primary beneficiary of this demand cycle.
Lithium: Strategic Position, Complex Access
Chile is the world’s second-largest lithium producer and holds approximately 30% of known global reserves, concentrated in the Atacama Salt Flat. Demand for lithium is driven structurally by electric vehicle batteries and grid-scale energy storage, with production projected to expand significantly over the coming decade.
Investors should understand that lithium access in Chile is legally complex. The 2023 National Lithium Strategy established a state-led model in which private capital is welcomed primarily as a strategic partner, not as a free-standing title holder. Lithium remains reserved for the state under Chilean law, meaning investment is structured through negotiated contracts rather than conventional mining titles. The Kast administration has signalled a more market-friendly approach to lithium policy, but as of mid-2026 the fundamental legal architecture of the state-centric framework remains in place. Significant joint ventures are advancing: Codelco and SQM’s Nova Andino Litio project, and Codelco’s lithium partnership with Rio Tinto at the Maricunga salt flat, are the most advanced.
Green Hydrogen and Renewable Energy: The Emerging Export Frontier
Chile’s renewable energy opportunity is among the most compelling in the world, and it is directly connected to the country’s mining sector through the shared requirement for low-cost clean power. The Atacama Desert has some of the world’s highest solar irradiance, enabling levelised costs of energy production that are among the lowest globally. Patagonia’s winds are among the most consistent and powerful in the southern hemisphere. Chile has potential renewable energy generation capacity estimated at more than 1,800 GW, approximately 70 times its current installed capacity.
In practical terms, installed solar capacity has grown from 225 MW to approximately 8,938 MW over the past decade, and wind capacity from 720 MW to approximately 4,509 MW. Chile has signed memoranda of understanding with more than 12 nations, including Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, and Belgium, for green hydrogen offtake and cooperation, and approximately 75 green hydrogen projects are proposed across all stages of development, with seven commercially scaled plants currently undergoing environmental assessment representing approximately USD 40 billion in secured investment pipeline.
The flagship project is TotalEnergies’ USD 16.3 billion H2 Magallanes green hydrogen development in Chile’s far south. Chile’s National Hydrogen Strategy targets 25 GW of installed electrolyser capacity by 2030 and aims to produce the world’s cheapest green hydrogen at below USD 1.5/kg by 2030.
Four Sectors Worth Watching
Mining and Critical Minerals
World’s largest copper producer (24% of global supply, approximately 5.5M metric tons in 2024). Second-largest lithium producer (30% of global reserves). USD 104.5 billion confirmed mining investment pipeline for 2025 to 2034 (Cochilco). Gold production growing, including Rio2’s Fenix Gold project in the Maricunga belt. Active TSX and ASX junior exploration programmes across northern Chile.
Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen
Over 1,800 GW of renewable energy potential. Installed solar at approximately 8,938 MW; wind at approximately 4,509 MW. 75 green hydrogen projects proposed, seven at commercial-scale environmental assessment, representing approximately USD 40 billion. TotalEnergies H2 Magallanes (USD 16.3 billion) the flagship. Mining sector driving domestic demand for decarbonised power, accelerating corporate PPAs.
Infrastructure
Water management and desalination are the critical infrastructure gap connecting mining and renewable energy development. The Atacama Desert requires desalinated water for mining operations and electrolysis for green hydrogen. Kast has committed to expedite water-focused infrastructure tenders. Transmission grid expansion is required to connect Patagonian wind and Atacama solar to industrial demand centres.
Agriculture
Chile is the fifth-largest fruit exporter globally, with exports exceeding USD 8.2 billion (USDA FAS). It is the world’s largest exporter of cherries, blueberries, table grapes, and plums. Wine exports position Chile as the fifth-largest global wine exporter. The fruits and vegetables market is forecast to grow at 3.96% CAGR to USD 9.12 billion by 2031.
The Capital Landscape: Who Is Already Here
Chile is the most internationalised mining jurisdiction in LATAM South, with a deep presence of global majors, mid-tier operators, and junior explorers across the capital stack.
At the major level, BHP operates Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine. Codelco, despite its debt burden, remains the world’s largest copper producer by volume. Antofagasta Minerals, Freeport-McMoRan, Glencore, Anglo American, and Lundin Mining all have significant operating or development positions. In lithium, SQM and Albemarle operate the two major Atacama contracts. Rio Tinto has entered through its Codelco partnership at Maricunga.
Among junior and mid-tier explorers, Fitzroy Minerals (TSXV: FTZ) is advancing copper projects in northern Chile. Rio2 Ltd (TSX: RIO) is developing the Fenix Gold project in the Maricunga belt. European capital is well-represented: Enel Green Power, Engie, and TotalEnergies have significant renewable energy positions. German and Dutch offtake agreements for green hydrogen are advancing at the government level.
Structural Risks: What Investors Need to Price In
| Risk Factor | Reality Check | Mitigation Path |
|---|---|---|
| Mining royalty regime | A new mining royalty law effective from 2024 raised the effective tax burden on large copper and lithium producers through an ad valorem component tied to commodity prices. Kast has proposed reducing the corporate tax rate from 27% to 23%, but the royalty law itself has not been reversed as of mid-2026. | Model project economics under the current royalty regime as the base case. The tax trajectory under Kast is more favourable but cannot be assumed in financial commitments made today. |
| Water scarcity | The Atacama Desert faces severe aquifer overexploitation. Water scarcity has already led to production cuts at some operations and is an acute operational constraint for both mining expansion and electrolysis-based hydrogen production. | Desalination infrastructure is the structural solution. Projects that integrate desalination from the outset carry a meaningful permitting and community relations advantage. Kast’s commitment to accelerate desalination tenders is a positive signal. |
| Lithium access complexity | Despite a more market-friendly political environment, the legal architecture of lithium access remains state-led. Investors cannot acquire conventional mineral titles to lithium. Commercial access requires navigating state-partnered contract structures involving Codelco, Corfo, or both. | Engage specialist legal counsel with specific Chilean lithium contract experience from the earliest stages. |
| Geopolitical positioning | Chile sits at the intersection of US and Chinese strategic interests. China controls roughly two-thirds of Chile’s energy sector. Kast’s alignment with the Trump administration creates tension with the China trade dependency. | Understand offtake market exposure and pricing structure for each project. Assets positioned for Western-aligned supply chains carry a different risk profile from those dependent on Chinese industrial offtake. |
| Community and environmental licence | Rising crime and migration concerns in northern mining regions, indigenous Mapuche community rights in the south, and environmental advocacy around the Atacama and Patagonia ecosystems all create social licence complexity that legal permits alone cannot resolve. | Pre-entry community engagement from the earliest project stages. Environmental credibility with both Chilean regulators and international investors is a prerequisite. |
Why the Entry Window Matters Now
Chile’s Cochilco mining investment pipeline of USD 104.5 billion for 2025 to 2034 is the clearest quantification of what the market already sees. The Kast administration’s early moves to centralise mining and economy policy and advance permitting reform signal that the regulatory environment will be more efficient in the near term than at any point in the past four years. Green hydrogen projects worth approximately USD 40 billion are in environmental assessment. Copper prices are near all-time highs with a structurally bullish demand outlook. And OECD membership provides the institutional and legal framework that eliminates a category of risk that investors face in every other LATAM South jurisdiction.
The quality of Chilean assets is well understood by global capital. The entry advantage lies not in discovering the jurisdiction but in identifying the specific assets, structures, and relationships that will benefit most from the current policy reset, and having the local network to access them before they become widely marketed.
The Montis Silva Role
Montis Silva operates in Chile through its network of longstanding business relationships and local partners developed over many years of direct engagement in the Chilean market. Operating from its LATAM South hub in Lima, Montis Silva provides project-based advisory and representation services for investors and project developers seeking access to Chile’s mining, renewable energy, infrastructure, and agricultural sectors. Our management team brings direct on-the-ground experience and established institutional relationships in Chile, allowing us to bridge global capital with Chilean real asset opportunities on terms that meet the governance standards of European, North American, and Asian institutional investors.
Whether you are evaluating a first investment in Chile or seeking a trusted advisory partner for an existing mandate, we invite you to connect.