Why Colombia? Real Assets at an Inflection Point in 2026
Colombia enters the second half of 2026 as a jurisdiction undergoing a fundamental reset. After four years of a left-wing administration that froze investment in the extractive sector, introduced draft legislation to create a state-owned mining company, and raised the sector’s effective tax burden, the country has elected a pro-investment president who takes office on 7 August 2026. Combined with elevated metal prices, a vast and largely underexplored critical minerals endowment, and a renewed push for foreign capital engagement, the conditions for a material improvement in Colombia’s real asset investment climate are in place.
This is not a simple story. Colombia’s structural challenges, security, illegal mining, regulatory gaps, and social licence complexity, are real and require clear-eyed assessment. But for investors with local knowledge and long-term orientation, the current moment represents a more favourable entry point than Colombia has offered at any time in the past decade.
The Election: A Sharp Policy Reversal
Abelardo de la Espriella, a 47-year-old lawyer and businessman with no prior political experience, won Colombia’s June 21 presidential runoff with 49.66% of the vote against left-wing senator Ivan Cepeda’s 48.70%, a margin of approximately 250,000 votes from a total of more than 26 million cast. The National Electoral Council confirmed the result on 24 June 2026. Cepeda subsequently conceded. De la Espriella takes office on 7 August 2026 for a four-year term through 2030.
The contrast with outgoing President Gustavo Petro could hardly be more pronounced for real asset investors. The Petro administration introduced a draft mining law that would have created a state-owned mining company (EcoMinerales) and prohibited large-scale mining in the Amazon biome, passed a December 2025 tax reform eliminating the ability for mining companies to deduct royalty payments from corporate income tax, and created persistent regulatory uncertainty that contributed to a 5.1% decline in mining exports in 2025. Foreign direct investment into the extractive sector fell materially across the Petro years.
De la Espriella’s platform is a clear reversal on mining. His commitments include reducing regulation to accelerate extractive projects, supporting formal investment in gold, copper, silver, and rare earths, actively pursuing illegal mining structures that have crowded out formal operators, and providing a stable regulatory environment to attract large-scale foreign capital. Major business guilds, including the Colombian Petroleum Association, the utilities association Andesco, and the thermal power association Andeg, publicly welcomed his victory and expressed their intention to work with the new government on regulatory reform and investment conditions.
One important nuance: de la Espriella won with a thin mandate over a deeply divided electorate. Cepeda won more departments (18 versus 14), and the Historic Pact remains the largest single party in Congress. Legislative coalition-building will be required for any significant regulatory reform. The most reliable early signals will be the appointment of the Minister of Mines and Energy and whether the December 2025 royalty deductibility tax reform is reversed or amended in de la Espriella’s first budget cycle.
The Geological Case: Underexplored, Undervalued
Colombia’s geological endowment is among the least exploited relative to its potential of any country in the Andes corridor. Large portions of its Andean cordillera remain geologically undercharacterised, despite holding confirmed world-class deposits of copper, nickel, gold, and coal. That gap between potential and realisation is simultaneously the country’s most significant investment risk and its most compelling opportunity.
Colombia is Latin America’s largest coal producer and the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, with annual output of approximately 51 million tonnes and reserves sufficient for at least 20 more years of production. Coal accounts for approximately 64% of Colombia’s mining GDP and generates around 130,000 direct jobs. Beyond coal, the country holds the third-largest nickel reserves in Latin America, at approximately 1.6 million tonnes, concentrated in the Cerro Matoso deposit in Cordoba. Gold is a major and growing sector: Aris Mining, one of the country’s leading gold producers, delivered 2025 production above guidance and projects 300,000 to 350,000 ounces in 2026, driven by the Segovia district ramp-up and Marmato expansion. Zijin Mining of China operates the Buritica mine in Antioquia, Colombia’s largest gold mine.
The critical opportunity for the next decade is copper. Colombia’s copper reserves are estimated between 7.7 and 9.7 million tonnes by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME), concentrated in porphyry systems in the Andean cordillera with geological characteristics consistent with world-class copper districts. The Mocoa deposit in Putumayo carries an inferred resource of 636 million tonnes grading 0.45% copper equivalent, representing 4.6 billion pounds of copper and 511 million pounds of molybdenum. Current copper production remains minimal, at approximately 4,200 tonnes per year from Atico Mining’s El Roble operation, a fraction of what Colombia’s geological profile suggests is achievable over the coming decade.
In late 2025, Colombia’s National Mining Agency (ANM) launched a tender for 14 strategic copper areas under the 2024 to 2035 National Mining Development Plan, with the formal bidding process opening on 15 December 2025. This is the most concrete near-term entry point for investors seeking early-mover exposure to Colombia’s copper frontier.
Three Sectors Worth Watching
Mining and Metals
Coal (64% of mining GDP, fifth-largest global exporter), nickel (third-largest Latin American reserves), gold (formal sector led by Aris Mining and Zijin, growing at record prices), copper (frontier potential, Mocoa deposit, ANM tender for 14 strategic areas). 17 minerals designated as strategic under the National Mining Development Plan, including copper, nickel, zinc, platinum group metals, gold, and emeralds.
Renewable Energy
Colombia shifted from a 3% firm energy surplus in 2023 to a 2.4% deficit in 2026, creating urgent demand for new generation capacity. De la Espriella has promised a new firm electricity supply auction open to all technologies. European and North American renewable developers are watching closely as the regulatory reset may unlock previously stalled projects.
Infrastructure
Colombia’s infrastructure gap is a direct constraint on mining development. Mocoa and other frontier copper deposits lack the road, power, and logistics connectivity needed to advance to production scale. Infrastructure investment that unlocks mineral access is among the most defensible real asset positions available in the country, with strong demand visibility from both public and private sponsors.
Agriculture
Colombia is one of the world’s top coffee producers and a leading exporter of cut flowers, bananas, and cacao. The country holds significant underutilised agricultural land, with the top 1% of landowners controlling 46.9% of agricultural land. For patient capital with social licence capability, agricultural land and supply chain infrastructure offer defensible, non-correlated real asset returns.
The Capital Landscape: Who Is Already Here
Colombia’s mining sector has attracted committed international capital despite the policy headwinds of the Petro years, a testament to the underlying geological quality of the assets.
In gold, AngloGold Ashanti operates one of the country’s significant gold-copper systems. Aris Mining (TSX: ARIS) has built a multi-asset gold platform anchored by the high-grade Segovia district and targets 300,000 to 350,000 ounces in 2026. Zijin Mining of China controls the Buritica mine. Collective Mining (TSXV: CNL) is drilling high-grade gold and tungsten at its Apollo system in Antioquia, with recent intercepts including 111 metres at 5.48 g/t gold equivalent. Tiger Gold (TSXV: TIGR) intersected 191 metres at 0.6 g/t gold at the Tesorito deposit, and Quimbaya Gold (CSE: QIM) is advancing multiple project areas in the Quinchia district.
In copper, Libero Copper and Gold (TSXV: LBC) is advancing the Mocoa deposit with a drilling campaign running through mid-2026, which could prove transformative for Colombia’s copper credentials. A 40-year porphyry specialist who visited the project described the 2.0 by 1.4 kilometre system as having complete alteration zonation and a geological setting analogous to the world’s major copper porphyry districts. Andina Copper (TSXV: ANDC) is exploring the Cobrasco project in Choco. Copper Giant (TSXV: CGNT) is active in the Mocoa belt. In nickel, Glencore operates the Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine, one of the largest in the world.
European capital has been present in Colombia’s energy sector for years, with TotalEnergies and Enel holding renewable energy positions. US capital, which pulled back during the period of Petro-Trump friction, is expected to re-engage materially under de la Espriella following the reset in bilateral relations signalled immediately by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio after the election result.
Structural Risks: What Investors Need to Navigate
| Risk Factor | Reality Check | Mitigation Path |
|---|---|---|
| Security and armed groups | Guerrilla organisations, criminal networks, and paramilitary successor groups control significant territory in Colombia’s resource regions, including Choco, Cauca, and Bajo Cauca Antioquia. Illegal gold mining is expanding across these areas, financed by and financing criminal structures. A pro-security presidency changes the political tone but cannot restore territorial control by policy announcement alone. | Project location selection is the primary lever. Rigorous due diligence on territorial control, community relations history, and security environment before any commitment. Avoid frontier regions without a security framework in place. |
| Illegal mining | The International Copper Study Group’s 2026 regulatory survey warns that informal gold mining will likely remain dominant while prices stay elevated unless Colombia addresses institutional, financial, and capacity barriers to formalization. Illegal operations undermine formal sector economics and create environmental liabilities that affect the jurisdiction’s overall investment reputation. | Formalization agreements with artisanal miners, as Aris Mining has done in Segovia, are the most effective near-term approach. Select assets with established formal operating perimeters and clear concession boundaries. |
| Legislative execution risk | De la Espriella won by less than 1%. The Historic Pact retains significant Congressional presence. The ICSG has specifically warned that Colombia must clarify its mining code, concession terms, and the fate of EcoMinerales before large-scale investment can be attracted. These require legislative processes in a divided Congress. | Stage capital commitments in tranches tied to regulatory milestones rather than policy announcements alone. |
| Tax burden | Colombia maintains a base corporate tax rate of 35% with additional surcharges tied to commodity prices. The December 2025 reform eliminating royalty deductibility has materially raised the effective sector tax burden. Whether de la Espriella reverses this in his first budget is a key watch item for project-level return modelling. | Financial modelling must use the current tax regime as the base case, not anticipated reforms. Structure transactions with appropriate return thresholds under existing conditions. |
| Social licence and community rights | Colombia’s constitution gives indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities significant prior consultation rights. Environmental and community advocacy is deeply embedded in the institutional and civil society landscape. | Genuine pre-entry community engagement from the earliest project stages. An ESG framework credible to both Colombian courts and international investors. On-the-ground presence, not remote management. |
| Information asymmetry | Colombia’s investment landscape rewards investors who arrive with embedded local knowledge. Local partner quality, regulatory interpretation at the regional level, and security intelligence all require on-the-ground presence that cannot be replicated from remote analysis. | Trusted on-the-ground representation with both local network depth and institutional governance standards. |
Why the Entry Window Matters Now
Colombia is an OECD member state, having acceded in April 2020, which places it within a governance and transparency framework that most emerging market jurisdictions cannot offer. That membership carries real weight for institutional investors subject to ESG mandates, country risk guidelines, and investment committee screens that exclude non-OECD jurisdictions. It also underpins the legal and contractual protections available to foreign investors, including access to ICSID arbitration mechanisms embedded in Colombia’s bilateral investment treaty network.
The combination of OECD institutional standing, a pro-investment election result, elevated metal prices across Colombia’s commodity basket, and a largely underexplored critical minerals endowment creates an entry window that is more favourable now than at any point in the past decade. Mining exports fell 5.1% in 2025 under the accumulated weight of regulatory uncertainty and tax headwinds. The floor has been set. The direction of travel under de la Espriella points clearly toward improved investment conditions.
The investor best positioned to capture Colombia’s opportunity is one with genuine local presence, security-adjusted project selection discipline, and the patience to work through regulatory transition rather than expecting instant certainty.
The Montis Silva Role
Montis Silva covers Colombia as part of its LATAM South mandate, operating from its permanent hub in Lima, Peru, and through its network of longstanding business relationships and local partners in Colombia developed over many years of direct market engagement. Montis Silva management has established institutional relationships in Colombia and engages in project-based assignments where our advisory capabilities, network depth, and institutional governance standards add genuine value for investors and project developers active in mining, renewable energy, infrastructure, and agriculture.
In Colombia, the local knowledge requirement is particularly high, and the security assessment component is non-negotiable. Montis Silva’s engagement model in Colombia is designed to deliver the on-the-ground intelligence and relationship access that global capital needs to navigate this market responsibly, without the execution risks that come from committing capital without embedded local support.
Whether you are evaluating a first investment in Colombia or seeking a trusted local partner for an existing mandate, we invite you to connect.